Analysis

29 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis We Always Pretend The Data Is True If you're going to analyze anything you have to at least pretend the data given is honest, real, worthy. Sometimes the pretense is harder than others. It's okay, we'll find our way. I promise.

2) I have no idea if, like me, you are the kind of person who'd LOVE to go to the sausage factory. I'd do it in a heartbeat. I love eating sausage. I would love to know how its made. I'm that kind of guy. Well, this thread will be a sausage factory style thread. Okay?


3) Diligent student that you must be, you're going to want to read or review yesterday's post. In the coming charts, you'll see how yesterday's calls show up precisely on target in today's work. So, take your time, here's yesterday's work:

4) Please also note the chart above, taken from today's Dornsife posts. It is the one chart they publish daily that I give MOST credibility to. All that covered, here's my own presentation of the exact same data:

5) We're going to spend some time with the chart above. The first thing to note is a vast difference in scale. You've heard about liars, lying liars, and statisticians, right? The way you present the data is a HUGE part of how lying liar statisticians get away with their trade.


6) The Dornsife chart employs a scale with a high of 70 and a low of 30, for a full 40 percentage points range. Now, what does that do? It LOWERS volatility. Volatility = Change. When you wish to DE-EMPHASIZE change, you EXPAND the range you chart. Got that?


7) Now, look at my chart. It's range - which I have REDUCED for today - covers solely a high of 51.5 down to a low of 41.5. That's ONLY 10 percentage points. That is precisely 4 times EXPANSION of the differences as the data moves. My data shows up as 4X more volatile.


8) Why do you need to know these details? Why break your brain over them? The answer is actually quite simple. Truth is not just the data. It is also how the data is presented, but most of all, how YOU understand the data. You can be played. Or you can dive deep and understand.


9) In analyzing the data, my goal is to follow changes, and the more sensitive the change data is, the better for me. I also seek the MOST knowledge, believe it or not, from the LEAST data. You'll be hearing more about that from me in future posts. Be forewarned.


10) Now, let's look at today's overall chart again. It should be recognized that the difference between the two campaigns has been, by Dornsife's analysis, ONLY significant from 8/17 - 8/24. Every bit of their data, they say, is less than the margin for error, ever since.

11) The word "pretend" comes back, now. Why should we even care about data that is by their own definition "not significant?" Here, I return to my own approach. If I'm going to analyze data, my first step is to pretend it is true. I allow myself that pretense, and dive in.


12) With that pretense in place - I'll come back to that later! - what do we see in this chart? The most important thing are three different times that Biden has regained the lead over Trump. Biden starts out massively in front. Rises a little, and then begins to fall.


13) Once, twice, and now a third time, Biden retakes the lead. When charting two campaigns, the crossovers are the real story. That, and the longest term lines. Long term Resistance and Support. What's clear here, in Trump's long term rising Resistance Line.


14) Also, we see a current possible surge for Biden. In fact, let's look at his chart alone, right now.

15) I often explain that the lines I draw require three data points. Biden's channel resistance enjoys 4 points. But, his current surge line is above previous resistance and has an 8-day rise above it, previously. It appears he'll set a new resistance line soon. Wanna see it?

16) Now, let's return to the word "pretend." Allow me to propose my own impact. I believe the Dornsife and the LA Times people watch our work together here. I do. More, I believe they have honed the ability to shift the data in Biden's favor.


17) If I'm right, and if they've noticed that I found the one chart in all their data that actually favors Trump, they have - I propose - the ability to begin affecting that data. There are scores of ways to do so. Lying liar statisticians, and all that.


18) But what if they're right? That question must be asked. My answer then is is something like this. The Biden team has successfully mounted its attack against Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Their base is so against her, that it's showing up here at Dornsife's Expected Winner poll.


19) Let's see what we find in the Trump poll. I have to confess. I LOVE this chart! Yesterday, I did NOT know that Resistance had been found. I called for it. And, look at today. We have our 3 points.

20) Here the word "pretense" comes right back in. Me? I don't believe Trump got smacked down, and I do NOT buy this Resistance line. I think that foul play is showing its hellacious face. If I'm an LA Times executive, and I follow Scopelliti's posts, this is what I'd do.


21) I'd literally smack Scopelliti's work down. Let's look at that. I have clearly stated that FALSE polling was the 2020 strategy. Let's imagine that Dornsife, under the LA Times auspices, is doing everything in its power to project a Biden victory certainty.


22) If that's true, than every possible lever in the Dornsife world must be pulled to project a Biden victory. It's obviously an old story.


23) I certainly have not hammered out the details yet, but everyday I move forward. We are honest pollers, at BTL. We do NOT seek to affect the polling outcome. Rather, we seek only the truth.


24) Honest polling is driven my honest, neutral questions. I've shared them many times, but please, consider them again: 1) Will you vote? 2) Who for? 3) Who should win? 4) Who will win? 5) How do you identify: D,I, or R?


25) And honest analysis. That's what we're about. That's what I do. Please head over, and send everyone you know to:

Thread ends at #25.


28 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis The Hidden Poll Over At Dornsife Progresses Let's go slowly to get started today. In 2012 and 2016, what was the true basis of Dornsife's genius? It was just 3 questions: 1) Will you vote? 2) Who for? 3) Who will win?

2) The chart you see above is the poll at Dornsife that MOST approximates their 2012 and 2016 method. It's question, who will people in your state vote for, comes close to the who will win question they previously asked. We must linger on that point.


3) I confess, I'm still upset, actually, a bit heart broken over the fact that Dornsife has abandoned its former method. I've written on this extensively, already, so won't linger long. But, there can be only one reason to alter a method so proven to be successful. Agenda.


4) I don't blame the polling data scientists at Dornsife one bit. A livelihood is a livelihood. They have to work. And the LA Times pays their salaries. That's why I predicted, after Trump won in 2016, that the LA Times would NOT allow the Dornsife scientists their sway in 2020.


5) So, the fantasy I imagine is that in this one chart, one of how many?, the scientists are still exerting their integrity. This chart is a prediction of victory. That's what they did before. It is my honor to them to imagine they're still doing it now. I love those guys. I do.


6) So, let's dive in. The first thing to look at is this absolutely ridiculous area, their gray bar, what I call, on their behalf, the Insignificant Difference Area. If you recall, in 2016, they used the opposite. They employed a 95% Confidence Area. That was SO MUCH BETTER!

7) Let's talk about this sample, and what it actually means. In 2016, the sample size was around 3,100, as it was also in 2012. Now, what we see is a sample of 6,000. My own theory is that they chose this sample to skew the data toward Biden.


8) The reason that matters is this. If Dornsife hadn't doubled their sample size, my strong suspicion is this. The old sampling would have Trump WAY ahead of Biden, outside of the Insignificant Difference Area. I can't prove that. I don't know what the sample actually is.


9) What I do know is this. They went from 95% confidence to an area of insignificant difference. Two elections rightly predicted under previous method. Now, we must change method. Do you smell the same rat I do?


10 With all of that addressed, now lets look at Biden even under these conditions, designed, I say, to his massive benefit. Sure, well within the insignificant difference area, here's the trend. Not looking good.

11) I just looked at that chart again, and saw a line far more beneficial to Biden. So, here it is. It's a channel support line, and I assure you, channels are good, and you want as strong a support line within them as you can get!

12) Looking very closely, I could have drawn that line just a smidgen higher up. The higher up the support line is, against an established resistance line, the closer to a flag formation we get. Perhaps Biden will hit his flag and explode to the upside. That's the Democrat goal.


13) Let's pause there on the fundamentals, again. Assuming you're a Biden supporter, what you need is for Biden to establish true hegemony as the predicted victor. You need Biden to be a certain winner. It's your objective to make Biden the assured and certain winner.


14) I know, the days are short. But, if you hear my case, with Dornsife full tilt on your side, you need to turn this chart around. No channel downward. A surgeling upward. That's what you want. You can't wait longer. I'll speak to that below...


15) If you're going to win against an opponent as formidable as Trump, and over the MAGA Movement, you MUST ensure the sensation of Biden's inevitability. Why would Dornsife, who's on your side, publish a poll so contrary to Biden's inevitability?


16) Speaking of which, what does Dornsife's Expected Winner poll say about Trump? My friends, I hate to disappoint you, but even a tilted Dornsife provides this data. And what data is this, exactly, again?

Oh my. Looking, I see a new resistance line. Check this out! It's not confirmed, as we need the progression to slow down and retreat for a third confirmed data point. But, there can be no doubt that this threatens a completely new formation.

18) Linger again. Who will win? And, I ask, who remembers the Flynn Doctrine? Who the people predict will win, will win. I am the one who coined those precise terms. I asked @GenFlynn what he thought, and he 100% agreed. That IS the Flynn Doctrine.


19) Before we finish, let's add some timing into our consideration. The Dornsife Poll we're monitoring here has half of their 6,000 participants' responses to that one question logged. Who do you think other in your state will vote for? Or, who will win your state's vote?


20) What we see here, then, by way of timing, is this fundamentally. It is the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett as our next Justice of the SCOTUS. Imagine that. Imagine that Trump's true support, as shows up in his dramatically rising resistance, demonstrates true approval.


21) If you're new to my analysis, technical is the numbers as they show up on the charts and the lines I draw there. Fundamental is my analysis - or YOURS - regarding the reasons why. Why are Trump's number up on this chart, why are Biden's down? What are the fundamental causes?


22) And I say, the fundamental cause of Trump's current rise is this. His supporters favor Justice Barrett. More, they demand he move forward to shift the balance of SCOTUS from anti-constitutional to pro-constitutional. They - and I agree - demand this to save America.


23) Who saw the interview with Professor Tribe, yesterday? He stated that the fact that Trump may nominate, and the Senate approve Judge Barrett is, while constitutional, also stupid. His remarks were riddled with scornful disparagement of the Constitution itself.


24) This, I purport, is what the left has missed. They do not understand how support of Trump is support of the Constitution. They do not understand how 2016 support of Clinton2, or 2020 support of Biden is resistance against the Constitution.


25) Polling is supposed to be true. My own polling rejects all agenda, no matter how important I deem that agenda to be. Polling should simply measure where the people stand. This is the closest Dornsife comes, now that the LA Times has charged them with an agenda.


26) Stick with me on this point. Our algorithm corrects for any sample bias we suffer in our reach. More, we have invested rigorously into procuring Biden support data. We do NOT want to use our access to alter our data, and we will not!


27) Polling is the battlefield, today. The Democrat Leadership, controlling the biased polling industry as they do, decided to put that industry with its bias to work this season, as never before. My own estimate is that this year's polling is 4X worse than 2016.


28) Four times worse: * Samples * Questions * Analysis * Outcomes I ay that Biden's entire campaign is dependent upon polling false in his favor.


29) I am an analyst. I live or die by my analysis itself. If Biden wins, and I predict his defeat, I am destroyed. My integrity of the data, and my honesty of analysis is all I have. Nothing else.


30) And I say to you this. Trump will win. The other polls are turned. They are not honest. They are not scientific. I have a long way to go in my own poll. But my analysis is solid. I called Trump 2016. I call him again 2020.


Thread ends at #30.

27 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis New Data. New Lines. New Methods! Before we discuss our new data, I have two wonderful friends to thank for their guidance: @teddyspeedboat and @JohnBasham. They both told me the technology was no challenge, and were right!

2) So what you see above are the first support and resistance lines I have ever drawn, using Excel's SO SIMPLE line drawing tool. I feel like such an idiot. It was more than just simple, it was FAR easier than drawing those lines by hand. Wow! Thanks my friends!!!


3) Also before discussing the meaning of the chart and its clear support and resistance lines, let's discuss the data itself, its strengths and limitations, limitations first. As you can see, I am only able to present my data in weekly chunks, as I don't get enough data each day.


4) This leads me, for the first time, to discuss cash. I've received, so far, $2,500 to get off the ground. I've invested another $6,000 or so on my own. I have a couple of team members who are also invested at about $1,000. I know, small sums all, but important.


5) We could make the move to daily tracking, and strengthen our overall data basis between now and the election with another $4,000, if we can raise it. I may end up investing that much more, myself...if I have to. Ah, but! There's another project to discuss!!!


6) What if BTL could do a Battle Ground State's Analysis? Here are the states @KateScopelliti selected for our focus: 1) Ohio 2) Florida 3) Georgia 4) Wisconsin 5) Michigan 6) Pennsylvania 7) North Carolina 8) Virginia 9) Arizona 10) Nevada 11) Texas 12) Minnesota


7) We have learned how to find participants who will vote their hearts from both sides of the camp, Biden and Trump supporters, in specified areas, zip codes, actually, neighborhoods, even. I'll discuss that more below, relative to today's chart.


8) Our Battle Ground States effort will likely cost, assuming we can raise it, about $6,000. I emphasize how we have lowered the cost of entry into solid, honest polling with NO agenda. We really have learned how to do it. So yes, I am absolutely asking. Know anyone?


9) On the chance you might, anyone can reach me here, at Twitter, by DMing me. Or, my email address is: Pasquale@TheConsigliori.com I have never been more dedicated to anything than the discovery of the truth in polling. Please check us out at:

10 Now, let's dive into the chart, with its brand new, Excel employed, support and resistance lines! Trump's resistance still points to victory. Biden's support still points to defeat.

11) Our BTL data has Trump at 71.7% probability of victory, which is his lowest number in our survey to date. And, we have Biden at 28.3%, his highest number to date. Please, let us be clear. We are NOT claiming to be right. We publish our weaknesses every time we release data.


12) Perhaps, my greatest claim of all is to mere plausibility. The failure of the the polling industry in 2016, which I do have the honor to have called out, accurately, inspires and emboldens me to put forward that our data may be better than theirs, weak as it may be.


13) Now, let's pretend. Let's pretend that our BTL data is actually correct. How in the world could that possibly be? Here is my answer. Biden is actually a weaker candidate that was Clinton2. And socialism is no winning strategy in America in 2020. There's more.


14) Put a lid on it? Are you kidding? This is even worse than Clinton2's strategy of assuming victory. And Biden is less credible putting his lid on at 9:00 am than she was. But more, far more.


15) I wrote a book, together with my wife the amazing @KateScopelliti, called America First: The MAGA Manifesto. It has a foreword by @GenFlynn. We presented the actual basis of the MAGA Movement. Please do consider it: amazon.com/America-First-…


16) And this my real point. Trump has a plan. He has a philosophy. His mission is 100% clear. Biden has a mandate, from those who drive him. He has no philosophy, no clear agenda, unless, you count the Communist Manifesto and the Green New Deal.


17) We must flip the other way. What if our Democratic friends are right? What if my data is only the result of my sample-biased reach? Then, I'm wrong. Biden will easily win. If so, why?


18) If Biden wins, it will be because we, the MAGA Movement, have failed to persuade that our vision of America is right. We will have failed to stand behind our leader, and give him the support he requires to win his 2nd term. That, my friends, will be on us.


19) I know, I talked about money above, a forbidden topic. Yet, I stand where I am. I ask honest questions, and only want want honest answers. Those I have so far call for a massive Trump victory. If that's not going to happen, then I want to know in advance.


20) So, regardless of where you stand, at least come and vote at my truly neutral poll. Your vote will count. I say, if nothing else, we need to get this election right. We need to know the truth. That's what polling is for.

Thread ends at #20.