Analysis

We Show Our Work Here, Even When It Isn't Pretty To get started, we finally have our first two analyses up here: betweenthelines.vote/analyses


2) I have to share, SILLY ME! Today is the first day I have any data at all to share, and I only now noticed that, at our On The Record pages, we ONLY ask, but do NOT display the answers. What a ridiculous oversight on my part. Never crossed my mind till just now.


3) But my knees are bouncing under my desk as I type...drum roll...I have my FIRST DATA to offer. Now, it isn't pretty. I have no charts to offer, and the data is, well, really, really thin. I won't even try to tease any information out of it. But, I'm excited anyway!


4) Let's get over the ugly part. Our new polling site has, so far, almost no access to Democrats or Left Leaning Independents. Without them, our data will always be BORING. And not meaningful. Not to worry, we'll find our way there. But, that's the ugly part. Let's dive in.


5) Anonymous Poll: 51 responses, 46 Rs, 5 Is, 100% Trump. By the way, I have yet to find a crossover of any sort. When I did my Twitter polling, a week ago, I found crossovers. We won't be a serious poll until we do. Crossovers? I'll vote for T or B, but I don't think he'll win.


6) Perhaps the most interesting data point we have collected is from our On The Record polls, and here are the Independent's numbers: 13 Responses, 100% Trump. I can't say that tells us anything more than we have access to Right Leaning Independents. But still, 100% counts.


7) I'll have to get together with my team later today to find out when we'll be able to display all the On The Record answers, so you can read their own reasoning. I have to tell you, it's amazing. People are so passionate and thoughtful. I can't wait to share it with you.


8) The worst bad news of the ugly part is at our Democrats On The Record poll. 1 Response, 100% Biden. When we get these responses up, it will be very important we listen to her reasoning. I am so grateful she shared.


9) Perhaps equally as interesting as our 13 Independents On The Record, is that our Republicans OTR have given us 1 more response than our entire Anonymous poll so far. 52 Responses, 100% Trump. I promise, I'm going to push to get these on display, fast as can be.


10) Allow me to speak to Democrats and Left Leaning Independents, now. If you check me out, you'll see instantly that I'm a Republican Analyst and Activist. I have never, and will never hide this. If that's reason enough for you to distrust me, I'll understand, Honest.


11) But, I believe in you, even if you don't believe in me. Here's what I mean. You're patriotic Americans. You do not want to cheat. You don't want a rigged system. You want to win, of course, but you want to win fair and square. You want a fair fight, a fair outcome. Right?


12) More than that, you want to know the truth. The entire polling apparatus in America betrayed you and lied to you in 2016. They told you that Hillary Clinton would win, with certainty. They were wrong. Why were they wrong? That's a question you need to ask.


13) My answer is this. Rather than true polling, they engaged in suppression polling, propaganda polling, news cycle polling. They thought that by placing thumb on scale, and lying, they could manipulate the outcome. It was a debacle in every sense.


14) You have to admit, the outcome announced at 2:30 AM EST on 9 November 2016 was a shock. And that shock was NOT something you deserved. You deserved the truth. They lied to you. I think you should be very angry about that. If I were you, I would be.


15) So, as a Trump supporter, I still ask for your trust, and I promise I will earn it. I don't expect it. I request it. I offer to earn your trust, not assume it. I will show my data transparently. I will NOT tip the scale, ever. For what it's worth, I give you my word of honor.


16) There's more, my friends across the line, I want to know your reasons. And I will NOT attempt to argue, disprove, disrespect, or convince you of anything. I want to know what you believe, and why. I am honestly curious, and passionately moved by your patriotism.


17) On the other hand, I will boldly ask that you listen to my friends and compatriots, as they express what they feel and believe, passionately, furiously, honestly, and deeply from within their souls. We are just patriotic Americans as you are. We are not dumb.


18) And that is what my very first, tiny sampling of data shows. Our side believes in our leader. We follow him with joy, and pride. We will not be silenced. But, if we learn how to behave well, we do NOT want you to be silenced either. We truly want to hear your voice.


19) Allow me to raise the stakes, higher. Let us imagine that your man Biden wins. What you want, then, is that we, on our side, believe it was a fair fight, a fair victory, and that you will respect us as the loyal opposition. That is what you want. I say, let us make it so.


20) I claim there is a genius captured within my 5 neutral questions. They are more than just a poll. They are a mode of communication. Follow me out. Poll your friends. That's right. Ask them my 5 questions. After each, add the one word question, "Why?"


21) I am serious when I tell you, I want YOU to be a pollster too. I want you to poll all those you know, and discover where they stand, and why they stand there. And please hear me in this simple prohibition: Do NOT argue, persuade, disprove, or convince. Just listen.


22) I have many critiques against the polling industry. It is a priesthood of scientists, but forgive me, often merely quasi-scientists, or worse, charlatans, propagandists, operatives disguised as professional seekers after truth. I am not shy. They embody dishonor, dishonesty.


23) And mind, please, when I say pollster, I mean it. Take your numbers. Tally them up. Analyze your data. I hope to help you. And, I assure you, my 5 questions will withstand the fiercest testing you can give them. They will work no matter where your respondent stands.


24) Most of all, reach across the line. Today's America has been viciously divided. It is time for us to come back together. There is lie we have fallen prey to. The lie is that friends agree. What malarkey. Friends agree to disagree, agreeably. Let that be our motto.


25) Check it out. My polling site wants to know where you stand. Anonymously, absolutely. On The Record, boldly. And we will listen, And report our results, no matter how weak or ugly, faithfully. You have my word.

The Lay of the Land: Mapping Political America While I made my formal call on 15 October 2016, this was the last image I published. Even on 8 November, no one seemed to know who would win. I did.


2) That is a very big claim. Knowing the winner on 8 November, through the data and the analysis, really did mean something. What did it mean? Allow me just one example. Through the night, I was on the phone with @GenFlynn 4 times, ending at 2:30 AM.


3) Here is what @GenFlynn had to say on that count: "Having received every one of Pat’s analyses throughout the Trump campaign, I can attest to their tremendous value.


4) "At the core of his work, Pat created a new form of political data graphing which everyone – myself included – appreciated and found incredibly beneficial.


5) "The numerous insights he generated always made extraordinary sense and helped us improve on our strengths and shore up our weaknesses.


6) "Pat’s keen analysis throughout the entire campaign, right up to election day itself, was not only extremely useful but relevant to our team’s decision making process.


7) "Not only was his analysis spot on accurate for months straight, it gave us moral support and encouragement during many a tough moment when we truly needed it. He has an incredibly rare ability.


8) "As a consumer of analyses during my over 33 year intelligence career, I had never seen anything like his exceptional accuracy over such an extended period of time.


9) "We won in a decisive way and there’s no question that Pat’s work helped us all during this very hard fought campaign to win back America's very heart and soul. While Pat is clearly a brilliant analyst, he is also a true American Patriot!" Michael T. Flynn


10) In these 4 years since that work was completed, I have had to face the reality of America's political leaning in way I could not have imagined back then. And, to the goal of knowing the truth, I've created this website: BetweenTheLines.vote

11) If you check us out, you'll see that our analysis is built upon the input - the data - from Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. I do hope you'll go there, and take the poll, anonymously, or on the record, or both. We're hell bent on finding the truth.


12) More than that, believe it or not, we're also 100% mission targeted at building an honest, open, respectful conversation between the opposing sides in American politics. We have not mapped all that out at our site yet, but we will. I promise.


13) For all our still tiny numbers of responses, I have been able to ascertain a grand, strategic map, that I never understood before. We will turn to that right now. The Map of America's politics holds 7 distinct elements. Imagine that!


14) Allow me to explain. A map must include both that which is described, and that which is not. There is a boundary on what a map conveys. Here there be land. Thar there be monsters. A map shows what we know, and what we do not. It has boundaries.


15) In the following map, there will be 2 extremes, the lands of which we will not go. They are the boundaries. Inside, there will be 5 domains, each of which matters. Here they are...


16) The American Political Map 1) Extreme Individualists 2) Republicans 3) Center Right Independents 4) True Centralist Independents 5) Center Left Independents 6) Democrats 7) Extreme Collectivists


17) Let's first consider the Independents, numbers 3, 4, and 5. Conventional wisdom today is that they will throw the election one way or the other. Conventional wisdom may well be right. It may be the Independents who determine the 2020 outcome.


18) So, let's walk them through. Center Right Independents, of which I am a member, lean Republican but do NOT love the Republican Party. We just can't join it, but we end up voting Republican, often holding our collective noses when we do.


19) True Centrist Independents have an interesting belief. And, they may be the MOST patriotic of all. They believe when things go too individualist, a correction needed to on behalf of the community. When things go too collectivist, a correction for individuals is needed.


20) Center Left Independents always lean toward the Democrats, but for some reason cannot embrace the Party, itself. My suspicion is that Capitalism is the problem. That is, Center Left Independents are NOT socialists. They still support free market capitalism.


21) The Democrat Party has embraced collectivism. It has embraced the power of society as opposed to the power of the individual. No, Democrats do NOT claim it quite that way, and as I learn more, perhaps I'll better understand their position.


22) But there can be no doubt, at least from the perspective of the Uber Democrats, the Party's leadership, that the Communist Manifesto is their guide. The Green New Deal? It is nothing other than Manifest Communism. Which brings us up to the Land of #7, Extreme Collectivists.


23) Extreme Collectivists do exist. And, they believe that it takes a community to raise a child. Their greatest enemy is the family, a nuclear unit that actually can raise children all on its own. They believe that the social entity precedes and dominates over the individual.


24) It's time to establish, clearly and without doubt, that Marxism drives the leadership of the Democrat Party. It is also time to establish, the Rank and File Democrats are Patriots, and are NOT Marxists, they are NOT Communists. Thus, there is a great split in their Party.


25) At #BetweenTheLines, it is numbers 2 - 6 we serve. This is critical to our map of American Politics. We do NOT serve anarchists, pure individualists, out to bring down our government. We do NOT serve communists, out to bring down our government. We don't serve groups 1 or 7.


26) Reducing groups 3, 4, and 5 into just the category of Independents, we seek to discover the mix, the weighting if you follow. Center Left, True Centrist, Center Right...which way will the Independents fall in 2020? That's a question worth answering!


27) Turning to my initial data within this map, Republicans are both two things. Of course they're my followers, so I have far greater reach amongst them. But, letting go of that, they are also louder, readier to dive in, roll up sleeves, and get the political job done.


28) To my Democrat friends, I mean no insult or disrespect. Rather, I offer a warning. The tiny amount of data I have initially procured says that Rs are louder than Ds. I know, I have my own bias. But still, I beg, Democrats...speak up! Be bold and aggressive. Make your case.


29) My five questions are neutral. They do NOT tilt the answers. Embrace them! 1) Will you vote? 2) Who for? 3) Who should win? 4) Who will win? 5) How do you identify: D, I, or R?


30) Here again is my new website. Please forward it by email, and the five questions above, to your friends. Check out the options and functions of the site. And join me, please, in discovering America's truth.

Updated: Aug 6, 2020

Where Do You Stand, On or Off The Record?


Before I dive in, I have to give TREMENDOUS thanks to my team. Although there are more, we have a core team of 6 extraordinary people. Team, I thank you!


2) We went live last Thursday, and have been working feverishly to make improvements. I imagine that process of development will continue for some days or weeks or longer. But, the basic functionality of our site has been happily adequate from the go live moment.


3) I'll describe what's going on in a moment, and how I came to be able to offer our first #BetweenTheLines analysis today. Right now, I have to talk about our mission, but I promise to be brief. In fact, I have a new pledge to give.


4) From this day forward, I will always seek the true thoughts and feelings of, first, PATRIOTIC DEMOCRATS, and also LEFT LEANING INDEPENDENTS. I pledge to seek and find them, and to become their friend, faithfull counting and reporting where they stand.


5) Why that pledge, in specific? As a leading Republican analyst and activist, I already have access to, and complete confidence in PATRIOTIC REPUBLICANS to speak their mind, and express their position. I have access to RIGHT LEANING INDEPENDENTS already, also.


6) What I've realized however, is that PATRIOTISM is the shared value among all four subgroups of Americans. I've shared many times, I was once ANTI-PATRIOTIC. So, I understand all these rioting, burn-it-all-down souls. I don't understand looting and burning and would never have.


7) But what I've come to understand since the days of my anti-patriotic youth is this. The vote is the ultimate expression of Free Speech, the most highly enshrined right of all. Here's my newly understood principle: An Honest Vote = A Patriotic Act


8) This season, more than ever, Voter Fraud has risen to the level of National Threat. Here's that principle: A Dishonest Vote = Treason I know, the founders did not define treason that way. Thus, the principle is my own, and NOT a legal definition.


9) I turn now to the substance, derived from the very first data collected at BetweenTheLines.Vote. In order to follow, you really do need to spend a little time at the site. I believe - and HOPE - you'll find it interesting and compelling. Thanks if you do check it out.

10) To follow this analysis, you must understand that #BetweenTheLines offers two distinctly different paths by which to register where you stand. Here they are: 1) Anonymous 2) On The Record Both are wonderful. Our initial data from each is the basis of this analysis.


11) To date, we have had precisely 5 Anonymous Poll respondents. They were all for Trump. Their breakdown is 4 Republicans, 1 Independent. I will NOT be able to commence real analysis of the Anonymous poll until we have Ds and Left Leaning Is.


12) I will state, however, that it's highly likely that our Anonymous Poll will be our most important. Here's why. An honest vote DEMANDS the sanctity and privacy of the polling booth. If anyone chooses to share his vote, he may. But, by 1A law, no one can demand to know.


13) Not a Constitutional scholar, and not knowing the history of the vote or its confidentiality, I can only say that a population afeared that it may not have voted the way the BOSSES approved, is NOT a free population. Free speech MUST accord an anonymous vote.


14) From a mere technology perspective, I'm NOT yet sure how we will prevent anti-patriotic players from using their bots to tilt our anonymous poll. Happily, that will NOT be my problem. Our team will find the right person to lead that mission.


15) What I can say is this. Our date will NEVER be shared with outside sources, with the obvious exception of the fact that our mission is to publish data. But, we will do EVERYTHING in our power to protect anonymity. The ability to do this is one of our highest priorities.


16) Let's get tactical. Here is what I need. I need Democrat friends who first understand our mission, and then, second, if they agree, to sign on for it. I need Democrats who understand the following point: We ask fair questions, honestly and fairly.


17) Linger with me on our 5 questions: 1) Will you vote? 2) Who for? 3) Who should win? 4) Who will win? 5) How do you identify: D, I, or R?


18) To establish the significance of these questions I must focus on Fake, False, Evil Polling. For the moment, skipping their distorted sampling models, they ask tilted questions, intended to create a predetermined result. Their questioning-finger is on the scale.


19) Here's an example: "Do you approve of disapprove of President Trump's handling of the COVID crisis?" The pollers know that, as long as something has the word "crisis" in it, the answers will come in negative. That's what they want.


20) Here's a question no polling outfit I know of would ask: "Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden's son's relationship to the Chinese Communist Party?" I wouldn't ask that question in a poll, be clear. But, please understand, tilted polling does ask the question above.


21) Now, I want you to consider #BetweenTheLines 5 questions again, and focus on their purposeful neutrality. 1) Will you vote? 2) Who for? 3) Who should win? 4) Who will win? 5) How do you identify: D, I, or R?


22) As long as we're able to prevent bots and other dishonest, anti-patriotic tilt from our poll, the keys will be to see how many Rs tilt toward Biden, how many Ds toward Trump, and how the Is break. Our first goal is to discover that data from every Zip Code in America.


23) Along with the anonymity of the polling booth itself, there is no question in my mind that the honest science of polling demands an anonymous poll, properly protected from evil players. I pledge to learn how to do that. My team stands behind that pledge, too.


24) Do you remember being 6 years old, and asking an endless stream of "why" questions? I do. When I was 6, my father prohibited me from asking questions in the car, while we drove to church. I was stumped. It was the quietest drive we ever had.


25) I can only imagine my father's relief once he established this rule. No more asking questions, no more asking why. I imagine he'd not care that this act, prohibiting me from asking questions, sealed my fate as a question asker. I'm still asking. Why? Why will you vote?


26) Who for? And why? What I've learned from the tiny number of answers coming in on our On The Record structure, as that I LOVE the answers given. And most of all, I LOVE the Democrat answers. No, not really, they relieve me, actually.


27) I love my Republican and Right Leaning Independent, fellow Trump supporters' answers every bit as much. I guess I just love it when anyone goes on the record. An anonymous poll is the real basis of data. But an On The Record response speaks to the soul.


28) And it is to the soul of Democrats and Left Leaning Independents that I wish to speak. If you're willing to honestly vote, then you're patriotic. You don't have to agree with me, or my friends. You just want a better America, and, no matter where we disagree we want that too.


29) I have no numbers worthy of analysis, yet. I do, however, have truth worthy of analysis. Even just 1 soul, willing to go On The Record and answer the question WHY?, is a victory. I have more than one. I have Democrats, Right Leaning Independents, and Republicans. That counts.


30) Honest Questions. Honest Answers. Honest Data. Amongst a tiny few, this approach has already proven productive. I hope you'll help me grow. What I need most are honest Biden supporting Ds or Is to spout off On The Record, or vote anonymously. Please help!