Analysis

22 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis Could It Be? Are We Poking The Giant In The Eye? My plan, this morning, was to introduce my own polling data, imperfect as it is, but ready for publication. And then what happens? You have to read the fine print.

2) Here's the key information: "Since respondents are invited to respond every 14 days, the 7-day graphic was subject to a certain level of periodicity, since the sample on which the graph was based essentially repeats every other week...


3) "...Our goal for this graphic was to have it more nimbly reflect reactions to news events than it could if the full 14 day wave was included in each data point."


4) I say "key information." I should say, "key DISinformation." They couldn't give a rip about "periodicity." What they've really done is shrunk the Insignificant Difference Are from OVER 5% to UNDER 4%. This leads me to a vicious attack. You have to let me.


5) I propose they follow my chart work. Further, I propose they follow my analysis, and more, they have realized how vulnerable they've made themselves by all the changes they've made this year, compared to 2016, since I have pointed all this out.


6) I propose that the actual heat of this attention to their bald chicanery has made them realize a change must be made, now, and this is what they've done. They now offer BOTH a 14-day window AND a 7-day window. I decry that this is worth understanding.


7) I say again, the real game is in the Insignificant Difference Area. By shrinking it, in presenting their entire 14-day window, they give themselves additional buffer underneath Biden and above Trump. I'll show you both in the 4 screenshots below.


8) Here is today's 14-day Graph.

9) And here is today's 14-day Data shot. The easiest thing to note is the upper limit of the IDA number at 48.60.

10) Here is today's 7-day graph.

11) And last, here is the 7-day data, again, note the difference in the IDA at 49.08.

12) I apologize over how boring all this must be. I am, I confess, in a state of shocked amazement. I never dreamed of such a bald move by Dornsife. All I did was plug their numbers in this morning, and I instantly saw that VAST difference.


13) What you're witnessing is, at minimum, an outfit designed to find the truth, now tottering in its attempt to color the truth, if not to baldly lie with the data. They're obviously not good at the second goal, or they'd never make this change.


14) As to Dornsife, I have a long, arduous process now to complete, of creating an entire 2nd chart system to track BOTH their 14-day AND their initial 7-day numbers. What we've been tracking so far have been the 7-day numbers. The 14 is brand new. Alas.


15) I'll be working late tonight, and early tomorrow to get all that done. If there is something significant there, I'll end up posting about it tomorrow. If not... I'll finally get to post about my own fledgling attempts at collecting my very own data, for you. Whew...


Thread ends at #15. And good riddance. Dornsife is really irritating me. But, they're still the big dog on the block, so, attention - CAREFUL ATTENTION - must be paid.


Updated: Sep 22, 2020

20 Sep 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis True Or False - Insight Or Psyop Before we tackle the data, this is my mental fortification tool, perfect espresso. No, not perfect, but pretty damned good. I do this every day, but today I thought I needed to share it with you, too.

2) In case you're interested, perfect espresso must be deliciously drinkable, with no modification, that is, no sweeteners or frothy milk, etc. My roasting skills haven't risen that high yet, so I do sweeten my espresso with Splenda. One day I'll get there.


3) My machine is a stove top espresso maker called a Karmira. It generates the largest amount of delicious crema of any machine I've ever used. If you're into stove top machines, I don't think there's a better one out there.


4) Why does all that matter, relative to today's analysis? Over the past 5 years, identifying, and protecting my mind and heart against psyops - psychological operations - has become one of the more challenging disciplines I've had to study and learn.


5) In 2016, I had the honor and privilege of working with an incredible pioneer in America's military psyop branch, GEneral @paulvallely. He is the highest ranking Army officer to ever specialize in Psychological Operations. Here's the great gift General Vallely gave me.


6) He taught me that it is impossible to fully understand political warfare - and all politics is war - without a solid understanding of psychological warfare. And, he empowered me by recognizing my own innate ability to see the dynamics at play, naturally.


7) General Vallely guided me to the literature on topic, including some of his own key writings. And, in our many discussions, he shared with me that there is one, and only one sure protection against the otherwise inexorable impact of a psyop. And that is the truth.


8) Here's how it works. A psyop is really nothing other than a lie, but as opposed to one person lying to another, it is a powerful entity or group with resources, that expends some of those resources crafting and disseminating lies to the public. Indeed propaganda.


9) As I came to understand it, the line separating propaganda from psyop is a thin one, but observable. Propaganda alone tends to be more general in impact, without required a specific mission, or direct goal. Psyops do have clear missions, with specific targeted outcomes.


10) And there is no greater or more specific outcome than a Presidential or Congressional election in America. It is NOT a stretch, therefore, to include Saul Alinsky's work in the corpus of psyop literature, nor to see that from Clinton1 to Obama to Clinton2 we see its rise.


11) During this season so far, I have been very careful to NOT include within my Dornsife Poll any discussion of psyops. Obviously, today's the day that policy ends. And that's why I especially needed my espresso for mental fortification, today.


12) Let's look at the chart again. As I have point by point attacked all the changes in Dornsife's method this year, my fear has grown that this is NOT honest data we're seeing. But today's chart literally gave me chills. To explain that, we have to discuss emotions again.

13) The ultimate test of a psyop's success or failure is whether or not its lie can penetrate past people's intellectual fortifications based on strong logic, and embed itself underneath that barrier directly in the target audience's emotions sub- or unconsciously.


14) Remember how, in so many fairy tales, there comes a moment when the evil witch's spell is broken? A good deed, or better yet, the kiss of true love transforms the evil's power, turns it against the evil doer, and frees our hero or heroin, or best of all, both.


15) Consider, in psyops, the lie to be one side's long spear of attack. Consider the target audience's logical, truth seeking minds to be their defence. If that is penetrated, the only healing salve that can cure the target audience now poisoned, is the light of truth.


16) As I've frequently stated, I do not have the statistical chops to understand how something like an Insignificant Difference Area is calculated, let alone to explain how it might be manipulated. But my instinct tells me that today's chart shines light on that evil, somehow.


17) I've told the story many times. On October 15, 2016, I saw in my Dornsife chart, the exact moment that the Hollywood Access Psyop broke. Everyone was reporting that Trump's bid was finished, but I saw that he'd won, and called it that day.

18) Here's the key. I had been scared and depressed and upset for the entire week from Oct 7 when the Psyop was put in motion, and watching as closely as I was, I knew that that's what was happening. I also knew, I was unable to protect myself from its impact.


19) There was also absolutely zero question in my mind that this was the worst attack the Clinton2 campaign had to hit us with. The moment I saw that America did NOT buy into the attack, I knew that Trump's real momentum would carry us through to victory.


20) That's why I'm so addicted to data, and work so assiduously to keep my view on the most verifiable of facts. It is my mental bulwark against these psychological attacks. And that mechanism is what finally kicked into full motion, highest gear, this morning.


21) Look again at the chart with me. The power of the turn, from high peak of resistance, to beginning of a new, downward sloping support is just too sharp, on this chart. We drop Biden's peak on September 1, Trump's on Septembers 7. And focus on these dates.

22) My published analysis of the Hollywood Access Psyop's failure focused on the harshness and identifiable irrelevance to the election on the one hand, and the complete hypocrisy of Clinton2 by way of Clinton's far worse guilt. I lauded Steve Bannon for his genius move.


23) It was the 2nd debate, which immediately followed the release of the tapes. Banon used the front row seats he controlled to bring Clinton's accusers to face Clinton2. ONe of the greatest, and most genius moves in American political history. Honor to Steve. Great honor.


24) Now, look at the subtlety, the absolute inscrutability of turning '16's most accurate poll into one of the primary modes of attack in '20. Ah, but now we have to put Dornsife into context. The psyop this time is something I'll call: 4X FALSE POLLING


25) Where Fake News was the grand strategy in '16, it is False Polling that leads the way as grand strategy here in '20. It has extended ever since Biden was selected by the powers that be in the Democratic Party to be their nominee. From that moment, the strategy kicked in.


26) The chills that ran up and down my arms and deep within my eyes this morning were caused by seeing Dornsife as the coup de gras of the long, slow, extended psyop. It's worth pausing on that French term. It means stroke of grace. That's the moment of the death strike.


27) Our American phase, "put him out of his misery," is the closest equivalent. It obviously means that your enemy has been suffering after blow after blow of your debilitating attacks, and, in his misery, is better off with a fast, painless death, then by a long, torturous one.


28) It is a little remembered fact that in the days when knights wore long swords on their side and stiletto blades in their belt, that the stiletto was also called "the mercy." Used mercifully, it kills in a moment, no pain.


29) What I see in today's chart is Democratic leadership loading its torpedo bay, going live, and the submarine captain instructs, "Fire." Torpedo's away. So...


30) I'm a bit sad, as this is the day I make my call against Dornsife final. I have now judged them actually false. You know I've been heading this way since August 19, the day they announced this season's opening and touted all their changes. 32 days later, I state my call.


31) As always, my calls are made in a right-or-wrong manner. By that I mean, if I discover later that my call was wrong, I publish the statement of my error, boldly. If wrong, I say so, the moment I come to understand I was. That's today's call: 2020 Dornsife is false.


32) I will still chart their data daily. I do not know which days, if any, I will further analyze. I'll make that choice day by day. But I will no longer put forward the weak theory of their potential honesty. They may be, of course. But I cannot deem them so for now, and won't.


33) Perhaps you can see the impact of my hardened heart in these two, virtually unanalyzed charts.

34) Let's finish up where we started out. I don't roast my coffee beans every day, but I do grind and draw as perfect an espresso as I can every day. It is tonic, nectar for my mind and soul. Each step of the process is a meditation.


35) I have been profoundly influence by the famed Japanese Tea Ceremony called Chanoyu. The Chinese invented the Tea Ceremony, but it was the Japanese who introduced it to America, and who perfected it to its highest form.

36) I have studied the literature, the written philosophy and practice guides of Chanoyu, but I've never practiced the art, myself. I simply apply what I've studied to my daily coffee practice, as well as I'm able.


37) We're told that the truth will set us free, and so it shall. However, we're also told something like, "The truth? You can't handle the truth!" That latter from Saint Jack of Nicholson. Neither statement is in contradiction to the other. Both are 100% true. Thus the challenge.


38) Here's a nod to all my Q following friends. I have come more and more to be angry every time I hear your movement referred to as a conspiracy theory, or worse, a disproved conspiracy theory. You are NOT a theory. You are people, and a reputable movement.


39) Your numbers are growing, as are the number of candidates who boldly claim participation within your movement. I say honor to you, great honor. You are fighting the fight for truth and light. Strive on, Q friends. I know that you too are lifting the heavy load.


40 Finally, to my Democratic friends, beware your leaders. Often, their purposes are not what they would have you believe. As I love you, I despise your leaders. And I reject their falsehood as such, without apology for that. I need the truth to set me free, and so do you.


Thread ends at #40. But the quest for truth marches on. And on.


Today’s roast is a bit lighter than usual, it it still has good oils extraction. We’ll see how she does in the brew. Exciting!


Updated: Sep 22, 2020

19 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis Calm Before The Storm - Or, The Plot Is About To Thicken You can't look for any impact from Justice Ginsburg's death in today's data. It'll be 3 - 7 days, I imagine, before we see its impact emerge. What I see here is calm.

2) You see above I opted to draw two charts over the same data from both campaigns, and including our Insignificant Difference Area. There are many stories here. The roiling currents beneath the calm surface are really there everywhere. There's one that jumps up at me.


3) On the first chart, I have to go with Trump's resistance line as the most threatening story, about to break above the surface...of the IDA's lower limit. If he doesn't, his numbers will have to fall toward support and that will mean a new formation to the downside.


4) You have to remember, there are the numbers, just the numbers, and then, there is the presentation of the numbers. I keep pounding away on the fact that Dornsife's new presentation is highly suspicious. That matters over this steep resistance line of Trump's.


5) We'll talk more about the Insignificant Difference Area (IDA) below. But focus with me on what happens if Trump's formation breaks above that lower limit, and then stays there for a while or breaks on through to the other side, above the upper limit. What would that mean?


6) For one thing, it would make the egregious nature of Dornsife's new presentation format that much more important. An insignificant difference, too close to call, is NO CALL at all. It blows up the projection capability from their data.


7) Second, if the Trump data is in the IDA, then how meaningful can the Biden data be, no matter where it's at at the time? Besides, there's no way for Trump's rise to NOT pull Biden's numbers down, sooner or later also into the IDA. The math allows nothing else.


8) The second roiling current is this strange new, so massively confirmed, downward sloping Biden support line. I now it's dangerous to take tiny blips seriously from one day to the next, but a .13 drop is .26 worse than a .13 rise. (From 50.26 yesterday, to 50.13 today.)


9) The one thing about Biden's gentle, but so strongly confirmed descent right now, that makes it so explosive if it's predictive, is how once again the MSM touts Biden's ever strengthening lead in the polls. But we don't see that here at Dornsife. It feels very familiar.


10) But it's the second chart above that rocks my boat on these apparently still waters, maybe a bit of a gust of wind swooping in. In days past, it wasn't too difficult to draw a basic trend line, splitting the difference between support and resistance for each limit.


11) When I analyzed the data today, I found I just couldn't do that any more. As you can see I had to draw two X forms. There are many ways X forms can arise. For both limits' trends today, though, it was resistance overwhelming support. Go figure. September 6 - 8. What happened?


12) A slightly different life for Pasquale. Imagine me with a team of analysts, feeding their research and assessments up to me, the boss. The main soul I need is my partner in crime who focuses on fundamental analysis. He or she keeps all the news dates on my technical charts.


13) So, right now, Pasquale is yelling over, "Yo, Fundamental Person, what was going on between September 6 and 8, that might have shifted both our trend lines from support to resistance? What do you have for me?" What a fun life that would be!


14) I suffered the same fantasy power (filling in for my real world deficiency) back in 2016. I'd be drawing my charts, see an X form shift, and scratch my head. What caused that? And why didn't I notice it then? We go back to Dornsife again now.


15) Who remembers my story, that I keep sharing? Specifically, I had but one statistics course in college, yep, just 101 and that's it. I aced it, but I aced all my classes. Still, I did love it, and I did coach @KateScopelliti when she took it the next term. That was AWESOME!


16) So, when we get to something like an IDA, and then, I discover an X form shift for both upper and lower limits over a 3 day period, I'm going, "What are those statistics magicians over there up to?" How in the world do they even calculate this...thing...?


17) For all my fake humility, I do have a statistical Spidey Sense, and let me tell you, I do NOT like or approve of what I'm seeing here. Nope, not one little bit. I obviously can't prove it, but this smacks of data manipulation to my intuitive eye. There's some jig up, here.


18) Here's Biden's chart. I keep looking at this, and it finally hit me today, this is an almost perfect example of the famed Fedora Form! You know, that short brimmed hat favored by saucy fellows the world over? I'm kidding. I don't think there any such a form been named.

19) You can tell that this new, but so instantly well confirmed support line of Biden's has me spooked a bit. I don't like it when new lines sneak up on me, that I wasn't even watching before. Pesky critters like that irritate me. I mean, how long can this support line last?


20) There's no math on this chart indicating it might not be the real line defining Biden's run, all the way to November 3. And, it might even be his victory path, if Dornsife has honest data, here. Wouldn't that be something? He won not with a bang, but a whimper. Wow.


21) More likely though, downward slopes hang out for a while, gently, but the longer they go, the heavier the gravitational pull weighs down on them. Think of a long branch on a pine tree. The longer it grows, the more it slopes downward. This one looks like that to me.


22) And that might as well bring us to Trump's chart. Talk about a roiling current beneath the surface! look at the possible new support line bragging about itself there. And that's what threatens Biden's downward falling support, the most.

23) I confess, I got so excited about this undercurrent, that I had to start looking to see if I could find a new resistance line to have an under-the-surface new possible channel or flag. I almost found a couple, too! But then I realized I had stopped analyzing as painting, now.


24) I call it "painting" when I force what I want onto a chart, and stop actually listening honestly to what it's saying for itself. Who knows who Alan Dershowitz is? He's got a similar term. Singing is when a witness starts giving up everything he knows. Composing is different.


25) Composing is when the witness is now making up information that is completely false. Yes, analysts are able to do the same thing, virtually. We can see stuff inside the data that just isn't there. It's important to notice when the temptation grows. It's always there.


26) By the way, never believe anyone who claims to NOT be emotional about their analysis. That claim means they're either lying, or more likely just emotionally suppressed. The emotions are always there, and often they're the source of your best insights. But not always...


27) Ahem, getting back to the dry math of it all, if Trump has a new, emerging support line and if that support line builds an X form (which basically just means "crosses over") intersecting previous resistance, then every single thing on our charts goes up for grabs, right then.


28) So, as I said at the beginning today, get ready kids, things are about to get choppy up in here, and yes, you may want to buckle your seat belts as we're about to enter some heavy turbulence. And parents, if the oxygen masks drop down, be sure to put yours on first.


29) As a bit of a teaser, regarding my beloved BetweenTheLines.Vote, if things go well today, I'm going to have a big announcement coming, well, maybe later today! If not, I'll try not to talk about it in further embarrassment. In any case, do head over there and vote!

30) And most of all, shock your friends that disagree with you, by taking them there, too, and surreptitiously begin to have open conversation even over disagreements, without getting crazy angry at each other. More to come friends, and be ready...


That's all for today, everybody, thread ends at #30.