Analysis

18 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis Suspension Of Disbelief...Or...? When you watch a movie or TV show, listen to a radio show, or read a good story, your mind does the funniest thing. It suspends disbelief. Same thing happens if a friend tells you a story.

2) You know you're not there. You know it is not actually happening right now in front of you. You know you're not participating or even actually observing. But, your mind places you as if a fly on the wall, or a ghost in the breeze, and you see and hear everything...as if real.


3) It's as if the whole thing is happening in real time. Yet it's not, it isn't even happening at all. Many times, it couldn't happen, no matter what. We call that form, fantasy. I bet you never thought of it, but political polling demands the exact same function of mind.


4) When you look at the data, for it to have any meaning at all, you have to pretend it's true. And beyond true, representative. How can 6,000 people reflect the voting will of about 130,000,000 registered voters in America? This is no trivial question. Suspend your disbelief.


5) What's the opposite of "suspend?' Perhaps engage, or re-engage. Such as, re-engage your disbelief? Take back your suspension of disbelief. Believe less? I bet you're getting the idea. So, as you see on today's chart above, I'm asking where the real story here is. Huh, huh?


6) I hope my continued drum beat doesn't bore you. The thing is, if a theory makes a prediction, and step by step confirmation keeps coming in, well, the theory is not yet disproved. That's actually a technical term from the great master of the Scientific Method, Sir Karl Popper.


7) Popper didn't believe you actually prove a theory, but you can disprove one. This is called "falsifiability." Popper drew a strong line between science and religion. You can't disprove a religious statement. To be scientific, a statement must be disprovable, falsifiable.


8) If you've been following my analysis, you'll recall that the very first time Dornsife released their numbers, I called a possible foul over this new Insignificant Difference Area - which I had to rename for them. They call it the "Area of Insignificance," which is nonsensical.


9) And as the numbers evolved I immediately developed my theory that this thumb on the scale corruption of the data, with a predetermined outcome, and I thought I might be able to picture how they'd do it. Biden always above, Trump always below the Insignificant Difference Area.


10) Following Popper, today's chart DOES NOT prove my theory right. But it also does not disprove it either. In fact, in technical analysis terms, it gained additional confirmation today, sadly. It's easy to see. Three times, now, Biden has dropped down toward the upper limit.


11) And...three times, now, Biden has bounced right back up away from that upper limit. Trump's proper compliance with the rule is much more strongly demonstrated. If you don't count day 1, he's tested the lower limit 4 solid times, and if you do count day 1, then it's 5 times.


12) Tell me it isn't so. Let me regain my suspension of disbelief please. Request made I have to offer a counter-theory to my own. Biden really IS that much above, and his support really IS that strong. So also with Trump in mirror image opposite. Meaning, they're actually right.


13) That's a tough one to hold, but I'm happy to keep it running as long as I can't completely disprove it. I am obviously on the hunt. As Trump always says... We'll see...


14) I am a little proud of this chart and the next. If you look back to yesterday, I anticipated we'd have one or two new formations shaping up today, and said so. The old formations could have reasserted themselves, with yesterday just being a blip. But here they are, forming.

15) It's tempting to say that just a few days' worth of data isn't all that meaningful. I don't agree with that. I believe that the simple math and geometry of these formations makes them powerful indicators of what's really going on. And Biden's is very interesting.


16) First note that his resistance line remains essential unquestionable. There it is. If he breaks out above, and builds a new formation there, that could be his victory path. But that's not what looks like it's shaping up as. Honest, it's not looking good. Here's why not.


17) If you compare today's to yesterday's Biden charts, you'll see that his resistance line has

fallen and not by a small degree. The most important thing is that it has gone from un upward slope to a downward one. Sure, he may change that rapidly but again, that's not indicated.


18) Part of the way I read a chart is very subjective, but I don't mean driven by my desires, although I absolutely HAVE to account for my own bias. Rather, what I refer to by my subjectivity is the feeling of the chart, and, believe it or not its gravity vs its lift.


19) Obviously, gravity pulls down, lift rises up. With a strongly tested, and negatively sloped resistance, and a lowering support line, also strongly tested, I feel a gravitation pull dropping downward. And this one is even more special. Look at this...


20) Biden's first 3 days were dropping, no big deal but that was the initial direction. That counts with me. Then, his support line could have been drawn, had I prophetic foresight, right then with those 3 days right there on a deal line, even. Cut forward to today. 3 days also.


21) Think about that with simple math. That's six days on this line. Suddenly, overnight literally, this support line looks like it's just about the strongest damned line we've got in the whole suite. And right there in the middle, you can see yet another downard channel testing.


22) You know what. I think that's actually important enough to merit its own chart. Hold my espresso, and I'll go draw it up, okay? Be right back...


23) Here it is. I can tell you frankly and truly, if I'm a Biden advisor looking at that, it might be the thing that gave me nightmares tonight. There's just such a strong, downward slant, not only to that, but to the entire, heavy, drooping formation, worse now than before.

19) I really do my best to prevent myself from making strong calls. I really do prefer to analyze what I see, rather than predict what has not yet happened. But eventually, I always fold. I'm not saying I'm making the call today, but this is looking like a break to the downside.


20) And if only Dornsife allows Biden's numbers to go, even briefly, beneath the upper limit of the insignificance line, I might be able to start patching up my disbelief a little. But as all stock pickers will tell you, the other hand is Biden could explode form here. We'll see.


21) Trump's formation has also changed, and while it may not look at that dramatic, it really is, at least to my eye. Just one more day upward, and he'd have maintained the previous resistance line, which would have been great. But as you look you see he dropped hard, yesterday.


22) While very possibly dramatic as I said above, it also may not be that big a deal. Meaning, when we look tomorrow he might spike up all the way to previous resistance, and a couple more days up there, and boom, he's got his old channel form right back.


23) Those two spikes above this new resistance line in the middle, corresponding obviously to Biden's deep slope secondary channel. Funny thing, in '16, Trump made me draw a much lower resistance line till the very end. Remember, I need 3 points to draw a line.

24) Of course, living with our suspension of disbelief here, the bad news is that Trump is still so far below Biden that we may soon enter the land of too late to matter, if Dornsife is both honest and right. If I'm a Trump advisor, though, I'm not too scared right now.


25) But as always, caution is my watchword, and I always play as if the bad news were true. How do we win in that scenario, assuming all this data to be spot on correct? As we discussed that yesterday, I'll let my advising go for now, with that.


26) So, tell me. Have you followed this suspension of disbelief thing I've been prattling on about? Consider the two words above, both "honest" and "right." I hope it's obvious that the two are in no way mandatory in the real world.


27) You can be both honest and wrong, or dishonest and right; both states are clearly possible. That poll that should win our true support, as Dornsife won my in '16, should be both honest and right, in order to support us in our collective suspension of disbelief.


28) As it stands right now, I think I have an internal hung jury of, let's call it 9 jurors decided against, 1 on the fence, and the other 2 only weakly for, and for them, it's almost more nostalgia than any other factor. You know, old friends and all that, you cut them slack.


29) Well, I did mention my own bias above. My bias for Trump and against Biden virtually forces me, in countering it, to look at positive data for Biden and negative for Trump each as having an advantage of belief I must give them. We all have to counter our biases. Not easy.


30) As Martha says, the story goes on. I didn't plan on assessing Dornsife everyday as I have been. But, they got me for the time being. So, I'll be back here tomorrow, and we'll see how our new formations are shaping, what other drama the data may bring. Have your popcorn ready!


Thread ends at #30.


17 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis What? No data? It's now 6:45 AM EST, and still no fresh data from Dornsife. Am I appalled or what? How do you get to claim the slightest scientific integrity yet now, for the 2nd time, miss your self-created deadline by hours?

2) I make mistakes. I get things wrong. I mess up. I do it all the time. I do it so often that I've learned way too well how to apologize, how to take full responsibilities for my many failures. I am, therefore, a very forgiving man. And I am loyal to my friends, also.


3) Loyalty to friends means, to me, in part, that you readily forgive their failings, exactly as you hope they will forgive your own. There is a story here. I have told it many times before. I'm going to tell it again, now. You'll see the reason why, soon, I promise.


4) In 2016, the first analyses I sent in to the Trump team, through my burgeoning friendship with, and service to @GenFlynn at the time, were based solely on my observation of the two campaigns: HRC vs DJT. I viewed them through the lens of Sun Tzu.


5) I have studied Master Sun's work since 1987. I have studied somewhere near to 50 various translations. I have employed this study in my formal work as Consigliori to my clients. I apply my Sun Tzu studies everyday in service to my clients.


6) Business is war. War is driven, as Master Sun teaches us, by these five factors: 1) The Way 2) Heaven 3) Earth 4) Command 5) Discipline


7) Be you Democrat, or be you Republican, or be you Independent, I challenge you, judge Biden vs Trump by these 5 laws. Yes, I am for Trump. Yet, I offer ALL of you my ongoing analysis here: #SunTzuForMAGA


8) By my current count (it is subject to change), I have completed over 290 of 456 chapter's complete commentary. After the election, I will finish the project and publish a book called, obviously, Sun Tzu For MAGA. Believe it or not, this is directly connected to Dornsife.


9) You have to allow me to brag. Please. Never having been involved in politics in any way before, with no connections or affiliations, I rose in 2016 to the position of most accomplished volunteer analyst in American history. I served the Trump campaign as a volunteer analyst.


10) How did I do that? The answer is surprisingly simple. I simply analyzed the two campaigns as if they were armies at war, by way of Sun Tzu's principles. I simply wrote up my analyses and sent them out. Well, there was one additional factor. I know how to network.


11) Who remembers Six Degrees Of Separation? If you can find them, you are six contacts away from any person on Earth, no matter how high they may be. That is the fundamental principle of networking. In 2016, I employed that principle, and found myself connected to @GenFlynn.


12) I do not remember the date, exactly. End of July? First days of August? I'll check and find it soon. But, the very first time I sent off an analysis including @GenFlynn on the email list, an hour and half later, he called me. Now that's a moment I'll never forget.


13) I am a man who believes in dreams, dreaming, in making dreams come true. My great shock was this. The very first conversation I ever had with General Flynn was NOT a dream I ever had. I never dreamed I'd speak with a man of his stature. I didn't know how to dream that high.


14) Here's another dream I didn't have. We became friends. Imagine that. No kidding. I count myself a friend of General Flynn, and I count him as my friend in return. We often speak on the phone. We more often text. And of all men, all leaders in America, I support him the most.


15) During the 2016 political season, I came in contact with many "great men." To a person, other than General Flynn, they cared more about themselves than they cared about America. It's been a long rode since 1776. Most of us are not worthy of our gifts since then.


16) 7:20...and still no fresh data at Dornsife...


17) Data. Of all the things we worked on together, General Flynn was MOST interested in Dornsife's data, as I applied Technical Analysis as founded by Charles Dow, to political polling. In the coming couple of posts to follow, I am going to quote him on topic.


18) "Having received every one of Pat’s analyses throughout the Trump campaign, I can attest to their tremendous value.


18) "At the core of his work, Pat created a new form of political data graphing which everyone – myself included – appreciated and found incredibly beneficial.


19) "The numerous insights he generated always made extraordinary sense and helped us improve on our strengths and shore up our weaknesses.


20) "Pat’s keen analysis throughout the entire campaign, right up to election day itself, was not only extremely useful but relevant to our team’s decision making process.


21) "Not only was his analysis spot on accurate for months straight, it gave us moral support and encouragement during many a tough moment when we truly needed it. His has an incredibly rare ability.


22) "As a consumer of analyses during my over 33 year intelligence career, I had never seen anything like his exceptional accuracy over such an extended period of time.


23) "We won in a decisive way and there’s no question that Pat’s work helped us all during this very hard fought campaign to win back America's very heart and soul. While Pat is clearly a brilliant analyst, he is also a true American Patriot!"


24) I assure you, my friends, I was stunned, shocked, amazed and yes, discombobulated during the 2016 campaign. I'm just a little guy. I'm short, and not athletic. I'm not rich. I'm obviously not famous. But I am an analyst. Go figure. And I did help the 2016 Trump campaign win.


25) I can't tell you the entire story now. But, in December 2019, a great friend of mine, name of John Rosen, talked me into starting my own polling outfit. You can check us out, here:

26) And here is where YOU can join in, and help us make polling honest again. You can begin to drive your own neighborhood toward a true conversation about politics. Here is how:

27) It's important that you define yourself as an honest pollster, personally. What you have to do is care, and care most deeply about those who DISAGREE with you. That is what freedom is built upon. The ability to disagree, agreeably. At BTL we have the answer to that.


28) We have 5 questions, and ONLY those. Here they are. 1) Will you vote? 2) Who for? 3) Who should win? 4) Who will win? 5) How do you identify: D, I, or R? If you add the question "Why?" to each, you have a real conversation.


29) It may be counter-intuitive, but ONLY listening and NOT preaching, is the true way forward for America. We can restore our friendship with those with whom we disagree, by ONLY asking, and ONLY listening. By NOT persuading. That is what BTL is driven by. True listening.


30) 7:47 AM and still not data. Hmm. Data truth is a rare thing. Let us hope that more of it will soon be coming. For now...I am sad to report...the data is late, still. How will we find the truth?


Thread ends at #30. Data now, 5 hours late, in.

A new analysis, based on new data, brewing. But first some excellent, freshly roasted coffee!


17 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis Drawing Near The Insignificant Difference Limits! You can believe when I tell you, yes again, that I WANT DORNSIFE to be right. In my analyst mode, I truly do have a place that couldn't care less who wins or loses.

2) I don't draw upper and lower limit trend lines for the Insignificant Difference Area every day. I did today for this reason. Both campaigns are drawing nearer and nearer to it. My sad theory is that Dornsife may stop this, thumb on the scale of the data.


3) As I've outlined, I have many reasons for this fear. The main one though is this. If Biden remains always above, for the entire season, and Trump below, well, that's just hinky. (Honor to AG Barr for that term!) What's more, what if they do that, and then Trump wins? Not good.


4) No, it won't prove my sad theory if Biden's descent and Trump's recent rise both come to a screeching halt in coming days, but man, it sure will add confirmation. Please mind, confirmation does NOT = proof. And also, please note I do NOT require their inversion.


5) If, once they may hang out in the Insignificant Difference Area for a while, and then Biden goes back up and Trump back down, I will NOT hold that against them, at all. I just need to see that they're NOT managing it, only reporting it. There is yet another hand, though.


6) If Biden really wins, and Dornsife predicted it from day one, then I will eat crow, BIG TIME, for having doubted my good friends there. We don't know each other personally, but I do consider them friends anyway. Fair is fair, and right is right. If they call it, I'll fess up.


7) Here is today's Biden chart. Damn, I have to point out that his virtual halt on what looked like a possible plummet line, if continued, or reversed, may add a bit of confirmation to my sad theory. Honest, no more about that!

8) It is, however, be you for or against Biden, important to NOT overreact to these things. It's only one day's data and we have no idea what direction tomorrow's data will follow. That's part of the power of formations, when we have them. They provide logical limits, mostly...


9) Mostly? Yeah. A formation is just a guess, it has no true scientific basis. It is an interpretation. They help, but from my perspective, they help far more in forming strategy than as actual predictions. I believe that strategy must respond to both facts and interpretation.


10) Just one step further, the formations themselves are defined by drawn lines, which are artistic interpretations. The data points - if they're taken from honest and not skewed data - are indeed facts. Thus, facts + interpretative lines = technical formations.


11) All that covered, obviously I love my lines, and I love to interpret data. And that leads us back to fundamental analysis and the strategies we derive. So, the question for the Biden team is, why were we falling, and are we done yet, or not?


12) I say in a fall, it's always best to believe it, and respond. Not overreact, of course. But falls must be paid attention to. What's more, they should be believed, if if they're actually just random fluctuations. One can't really know. So, best to at least pretend it's real.


13) Here's what I offer. Your COVID strategy isn't working, in spite of how happy and brilliant you were with the Woodward book's revelations. Sadly for you, they're fading already. You won't win many more news cycles that way. I'm sorry. It was a great strategy though. Honest.


14) Here's the problem with that strategy though, as I see it. You sound - tone, now - you sound a bit gleeful over bad news. You've been guilty of that with the economy, too. And come on, you were SO trigger happy with the failed Impeachment. That was not good for you.


15) Don't be downcast. You can still really take this thing all the way home. You can. But you really do have to change course, I fear. Seriously. Let's go back to COVID. You're not making a logically sound case when you say that our terrible 200,000 deaths were caused by Trump.


16) For instance, you're not taking any responsibility at all for Cuomo's decision to send seniors with COVID back into their senior care facilities. And, you've got Cuomo saying terrible things about Trump right now, that Republicans can match up against his previous praise.


17) If you're listening, please. Just stop. Stop that right now. Pull all that stuff off the airwaves, and let's help Biden build a better strategy. And I'm telling you, it'll have to pass logical muster. You're insulting the intelligence of your voters. You can't win that way.


18) My idea would be to make Biden be almost always calm. Sure he can say bad things about Trump whenever he wishes, and he must. But, not over the top. Not driven by anger or hatred, or even spite. It cheapens him, and makes him look less than serious.


19) Here's the key for you. Listening? Sell me. Yes, me. Make me believe that if Biden wins, I'll still be okay. No, you won't get my vote. But yes, you will get my support in spite of my absolute MAGA dedication. Think about it. We'll talk more about this again, soon.


20) Here's Trump. Insignificant Difference Area...here we come? Yesterday was a huge spurt, one of the largest yet this season. Today's is much smaller, slowing down. You never know with surges how long they'll last. And, you must NEVER count on them!

21) As you've noticed, I'm quite ambivalent about the quality of this data, still. Here, I simply have to pretend it's solid. Giving me that, my next step is say, hey guys, let's get ready to hit resistance and bounce right back down. Sure, we may punch through. We'll see.


22) Now this is important. If this data is right, we'll never win while we're in this channel, and the support level is sheer death. We cannot let ourselves get comfortable in any case. This is NOT a winning channel. That means we're going to have to break out on the upside.


23) More, once we do, we're going to have to reinforce our new formation with a winning support line. You just can't ever count on resistance to bring you home, even that that's what we did last time in 2016. I'm not thinking we're going to repeat that in that way again.


24) Here's your homework. Read this article, and pretend it is 100% spot on right. You will NOT agree with it actually, and you probably shouldn't. But real winning means facing, and then slaying the dragon. It doesn't mean pretending he isn't there.

25) Your question will be, how do completely reverse this, so that even our worst enemies will have to admit we nailed our mission? I'll offer just one tactic for your consideration, and we can work on this more later. Consider a: Why-I'm-So-Proud-Of-My-President ad campaign.


26) You already did that at your Convention, and you rocked the virtual house with it. It was SO awesome! And great job to whoever came up with that! I'm saying, keep that going. If the numbers come in showing you're benefiting, do two such campaigns per week till the election.


27) If I were to be personally honored with a slot, I'd say something like: "Never before in my entire life have I felt the gratitude to my president that Donald J. Trump puts into my heart each and every day." If interviewed, I could go on and on and on.


28) Sadly for me, your intelligent ad creators would screen me out in a heartbeat. I'm not the right guy for the campaign. But, who am I to tell you? You guys really are so good at what you do. My point really is only an example. You can come up with scads more, of course.


29) I have to close out today's chat with this final point. Ask Trump. He knows what to do. Every time I see him on TV anymore, I just see him nailing the moment. The only advice I'd offer the Chief is this. Walk a bit more happy. Head up, high. Big smiles. That's it.


30) That's all for today, friends. If you're a Trump supporter, go read the article above, and get to work addressing it yourself. If your for Biden, I'm telling you, comfort is not your friend right now. Besides, these numbers may not be right. Think about it, seriously. Please.


Thread ends at #30.