15 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Twenty-Third Analysis
15 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis The Forms Are Holding...For Now... Today's analysis was fun! But, as you'll see, I caused myself some grief, as well as rediscovered my soft case of dyslexia. And no, much as I lean that way, I can't quite reject Dornsife yet.
2) Put aside all my obsessive details. This chart is fun. Here's why. The thing I love MOST about Dornsife is that they often show the EXACT opposite of all the stories you see everywhere else. Why in tarnation is Trump rising, Biden falling, right now? Why?
3) As I always say, all I need is for one, the other, or both to enter into the Insignificant Difference Range, and I won't care what happens after that. That is, before I'm a partisan, I'm a data man. I have to be able to believe in the data.
4) As an honest partisan, I am absolutely happy that Biden is falling, Trump rising as is easy to see. As an honest data man, as much as I TOTALLY DISAGREE with Dornsife's change from 95% confidence, back in 2016, as their gray area, I am able to grant their new method.
5) It's worth a moment's notice to be able to flip things round in your visual field of imagination. This 95% confidence range was how they did it back in 2016. It was a far more honest method of data representation. It was awesome and I miss it, deeply.
6) To be completely honest, good as I am with data, even I can't quite visualize their method today inverted back to their method of 2016. Actually, I can't do it to visual satisfaction. I can almost do it. What's more, I'll ask my data team for help in restoring it, if we can.
7) Let's turn to the formations as they're evolving now. I chose NOT to extend Joe's form very much forward for the following reason. The way one drawls lines, from day to day, includes minute, but critically important variations. Today's chart is narrower than previous. Why?
8) The way you draw a line through a point really does vary. You can call the point high, low, or smack in the middle, as best as your eye and ruler and pen can do. Human variation is an art, NOT a science. The location of your line absolutely reflects your own leanings.
9) I try to be more than just aware of these leanings of my own. I try to be completely cognizant of them, and make my conscious choices to include that awareness, and to include, also, the awareness of how wrong I may be in any given moment, and over time as a trend.
10) Still, for all that, Joe's resistance line has been tested more often than his support line, and he looks to be headed back toward support. If he breaks to the downside that will be bad. Very bad. If he bounces back up, that will be good, very good.
11) Just as a fundamental instinct, I suspect that Dornsife's many changes have set poor old Uncle Joe up for too high expectations. If I were a betting man, I'd bet that Biden will break support to the downside. But, no matter, the data will tell all.
12) Happily for me, as a Trump supporter myself, Trump's support line has been tested exactly as many times as his resistance line, and he's heading up right now, clearly, over the past 4 days. In political time, 4 days is an eternity. And his channel holds strong and well.
More to come much later today. My business day strikes, and I'll be engaged for many hours. So... Thread suspends for now at #12.
Thread ended at #12 yesterday, good intentions to the contrary. It was a very good day, however, and a long one. Time marches on, and we have new data to analyze. So, off to today's charts I go...