24 July 2020 #BetweenTheLine Fifth Analysis
24 July 2020 #BetweenTheLines Analysis Social Media and Political Polling If you follow me here at Twitter, you know I am a Trump supporter, and also that I care about civil discourse, a meeting of the minds. The website below is built on that passion:
2) On that note, I humbly request that you sign up at my new website by email. Here's why. It is very likely that Twitter will soon suspend my account, precisely as it has to so many other conservative voices. Twitter decided, yesterday, to delete one of my polls. My 3rd poll.
3) I have a theory. My poll pointed toward answers, toward how to reunite our nation's political civil discourse. My theory is that Twitter is, itself, opposed to this goal. My theory is that Twitter is fueling, fomenting civil discord; NOT promoting civil discourse.
4) One of my friends, when I shared my sadness over the destruction of my poll, told me, "You've entered the big leagues now." That comforted me. But it saddened me also. In today's political world, censorship appears to be the badge of honor of the big leagues.
5) What I've decided to do is this. Either Saturday or Sunday morning, if Twitter has not yet suspended this account, I will post the same poll again, and wait, and watch to see if Twitter deletes it a second time. I'll wait and see.
6) If it allows my poll to complete its truth search, then I'll post an analysis of the results. But, if it deletes the poll a second time, then I will know that my time here at Twitter is coming to an end.
7) Let's turn to the subtext now. I do not yet have the data to show what I believe to be true. My current, not-data-driven belief is this. Biden's support is weaker even than was HRC's. Today's polling is far worse than it was in 2016. Polls are being used for mere propaganda.
8) To all my Biden-supporting friends, please hear me. I take NO joy in challenging the veracity of Biden-winning polls. If they were simply true, I would celebrate them. I need no agreement from the data. Rather, I need the data to point me toward the truth.
9) By deleting my poll Twitter has put us on notice. Our search for truth is against their policy. That one data point, their deletion of my poll's first tweet, alerts us all to their opposition to the truth. It is more important than I can express to note this, to understand it.
10) Follow the simple history. There were only 3 polls that predicted Trump's victory in 2016. It matters not if you support or oppose Trump. You need to face the fact that polls have been - yes - weaponized. They don't seek truth. Rather, they promulgate propaganda.
11) I have pledged myself to polling truth. If honest data leads me to see that Biden will win, it will be on me to call his victory before it occurs. That is the entire purpose of polling. It is to accurately call victors. It is to measure support, measure resistance. To call.
12) Following measurement, activism kicks in. I am a registered Independent, simply due to the fact that I more often oppose the Republican Party than support it. But, I am right leaning. That means I support Republican contenders.
13) As a fledgling pollster, I am more than merely allowed my personal leaning. I am absolutely mandated, by ethics, to announce my leaning so that others may attack my methods of collecting the data. The term is: selection bias. I disavow it, but acknowledge it, also.
14) Stay with me. Disavow, but acknowledge. That is a complex thing. I acknowledge that my vulnerability as a pollster is my own personal leaning. I disavow my own personal leaning, when it comes to the data. I always request to chance to win, to earn trust.
15) As an ardent opponent to Biden's election, I am on double-watch to see if the data support his ascendence. As an ardent Trump supporter, I am on double-watch to see if the data resist his reelection. More than politics, truth is my mistress, my goddess.
16) Anyone who has followed my work here at Twitter knows that all the above is 100% true. I seek NOT to influence the data. I seek to know it, and its signification. In this, I purport I am far from alone. I have not met one person yet who wishes otherwise. We seek truth.
17) No, I have no plans to go to Parler. I've considered it. I've rejected it. Should I lose this account, I will grieve it, yet let it go. Should Twitter's agenda be to suppress the truth, then I will face and accept that fact, and then, decide what to do about it.
18) If you follow my professional life, I am The Consigliori. I am a follower of the great, fictional Don Corleone. In studying Mario Puzo's musings, we learn that the Don only asks a favor once. If he is refused, he never asks again. That is my emotion towards Twitter.
19) Twitter disavowed all rights to the pursuit of truth. My poll was honest. It was not obstructive, nor disrespectful in any way. Yet, Twitter chose to delete my poll. I have now marked this. If this occurs a second time, as I fear it will, I will disavow Twitter.
20) Social media is NOT the answer to America's political, civil discourse. We have failed to offer respect to those with whom we disagree. The answer exists elsewhere. It exists between two friends, and most especially, two friends who disagree. Two who disagree, agreeably.
21) It is critical to distinguish between one-on-one conversation, and one-on-more-than-one. In group discourse, the most strident wins. Everyone else is terrorized. So, no one speaks due to risk of being singled out. Singled out? What an important term.
22) In today's world, to be singled out is to face being fired at work, and thereby, failing to support one's family. How serious is that? In yesterday's world it was even worse. The reality then was called being ostracized. This is nothing other than to be executed, slowly.
23) Being ostracized is the ultimate sanction in human society. The reality of its practice was that everyone in the tribe would look straight at you, but not see you. In this, you knew you were excluded, utterly. You would not share in the next hunt or harvest's bounty.
24) This is no mere intellectual excursion. Paul Manafort's solitary confinement will most likely be his execution. It is today's form of ostracization. By pardoning Stone, Trump saved him from precisely such execution at law.
25) Although I have long known of these anthropological factors, Twitter deleting my poll's first tweet was the first time in adult life that I faced it directly, institutionally. Note this. Twitter ostracizes, and knows that it does. That, my friends, is Twitter's evil power.
26) Many of my friends guide me to Parler, as a "back up." For many reasons, I reject this option. At Parler, our tribe is Conservatives. I seek NOT to be a member of that tribe. I seek only to be a member of the Tribe of Americans. Conservatism is not my home.
27) Jonah Goldberg is my example. He's a flawless conservative. I reject almost everything he says when on FOX News being interviewed. How do you NOT call him a conservative? I say there's no way to do that. He represents it, perfectly.
28) No, I'm just an American. I am neither Conservative nor Liberal. I am merely patriotic. I worship on the altars of our Declaration and our Constitution. And all I do here in social media, is seek the truth.
29) So, I say to you this. If social media falls to mere partisanship, then let us build another media, together. Or, if we can survive here at Twitter, then let us stay here. That much is up to Twitter.
30) I will poll here at Twitter one more time. If it again deletes my poll, I will build a new strategy. If not, then I'll continue. But, never again with the same Pollyanna naivete. I have been warned. Warned, I now am.
Thread ends at #30. On the chance my account will be suspended, please go here first, and sign up by email: