24 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Thirty-second Analysis
September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis Dornsife Predicts Trump Victory! Okay, not really, but this chart - one of 8 now available - actually does lean Trump's way. Check it out.
2) I'll be short right now. Here's why. I have decided to extract all the data and show it in my own way. I do consider this important work or I'd not waste my time, I promise.
3) I think the tactic involved here is called an Information Dump. You've seen it in movies about law cases, when one side requests specific information and the other sends truck loads of boxes inside of which is the information, but there's almost no way to find it.
4) As of right now, I can't tell you how many new charts Dornsife has added. Being me I'm kind of in data heaven, bopping about all over the place at their website. It's a good site, for real. Within the vast number of new data presented, I believe I've found what they're hiding.
5) I have been threatening to share my own data with you, and I absolutely WILL DO SO, tomorrow. I am MASSIVELY excited about that. There's a strange connection here. One of the charts I've found at Dornsife looks a great deal like my data. Wow!
6) There's so much this chart tells me. It reaffirms my strong suspicion that the current sample - whose data shows up just like this, but inverted - is heavily weighted with a Democrat leaning.
7) I admit, I am pleasantly surprised that Dornsife, in this Information Dump, has allowed such data to show up. I remain profoundly disappointed that they bury this data so deep that, well, I may be the one and only guy looking at it.
8) Speaking of being the only guy in the world to do something, I have a wooden sword story to share with you about this remarkable weapon. Look at the phenomenal craftsmanship and beauty. And I can tell you, it holds to your hand with power and grace.
9) I bought this incredible work of martial art around 2007 or so, for $125. It was advertised at the swordmaker's website and I was stunned the moment I saw it. It may well be the greatest bargain in my entire sword collection. You won't believe what I discovered later.
10) My Claymore is 1 of 2, and that's it. The other is owned by the sword maker. And, for that reason, she discontinued to offering. So, outside of herself, I am the one and only person to own this beauty, and always will be, since it's not on offer. How about that?
11) When my sword maker friend discussed this with me, she explained that she had some super duper extra phenomenal lathe thing, that was required for this kind of fine work. And, yeah, you guessed it, it broke and she couldn't justify the expense of replacing it.
12) Life is filled with heart breaks, many of them small, or even not noticed. I noticed that one. It made me proud to be the one person to pay the damned $125 for this work of art. It made me sad that the means of production was no longer under the control of its maker.
13) There is truth within the data, friends. Precisely as I found and to this day - I just took those shots right now - own that wonderful sword, I will find the truth within the data, even if I'm the only guy in the world to do so.
14) I'm going to go make some espresso now, and then I'll come back and chart out Dornsife's strongest, best chart. This will be fun!
Thread pauses temporarily at #14.
P.S. It's amazing what you learn WHILE writing up a Twitter thread. My first post references 8 charts. While working on the thread, I realized there are MANY more than just 8. Thus, data dump. I really am in data heaven right now!
Interim Post... So, here I am innocently working on my data, and what do I find? The chart I posted above was of the ENTIRE sample, and it gently calls for Trump. Well...check this out! This is the Independents!!! For my own call, It won't be Ds or Rs, but Is who determine 2020.
New images, but no lines drawn... I'm working with my tech people. My printer/scanner is, for some inscrutable reason, off line. So, I can't draw my lines. Here, however, is the data in my Excel format. It's an amazing chart. Biden and Trump will follow.
15) After many technical challenges faced - and some NOT yet overcome - I'm ready to finish up today's work. Technology is amazing, and I will learn to use it. Boy do I struggle, as you'll see. Let's return to this chart. Within the too close to call, still Trump leads. Amazing.
16) What exactly is this chart tracking? The Dornsife people ask, for this chart, just this one question: In your state, who do you think others will most vote for? That makes it essentially a "Who will win?" question. It sits easily within the Flynn Doctrine.
17) The Flynn Doctrine is: Who The People Think Will Win, Will Win Buried deep within their website, this is their poll that most strongly calls for Trump. Isn't that interesting?
18) Now we turn to technology. What I do is enter data into an Excel spreadsheet. The data is formatted into a lovely chart. I print out the chart, and with pen and straight edge, draw my support and resistance lines by hand. But, my printer's out today!
19) So, never to be stopped, I started learning how to use a snipping tool. As you'll see, I have a lot to learn. But, tools are tools, and we must learn them at need, right? This is the Biden form from the same data.
20) As we've seen elsewhere, the trend is clearly downward. And, when you place that over the Trump line, as you saw above, Trump is pulling away, and Biden's channel is clearly downward. How about that? You won't see that chart anywhere else.
21) And here, along with my terrible handwriting, made worse by using my mouse, is the Trump chart from the same data.
22) I tried, honest I did. But, I simply wasn't able to spell "Resistance" with my mouse. So, 1st & 2nd R are simply two interesting resistance lines. I know it looks like a bad student in 1st grade, but I was able to spell support.
23) Please consider that they at Dornsife have hidden this data deep within their recently published overflow of data. Were I a Democrat, I would 100% want to know about this. What if this is the truest data, as it was for Clinton2 in 2016? Winning requires access to truth.
24) As I said above, tomorrow, I'll be providing my own data. I did once before. What I did then was attempt to correct for my overwhelmingly stronger access to Trump supporters than Biden's. This is called sample bias. We at BTL work everyday to overcome this.
25) In the meantime, and as I always say, do help us out, and most especially bring your Biden supporting friends to our honest polling site:
Thread ends at #25.