29 July 2020 #BetweenTheLines Seventh Analysis
29 July 2020 #BetweenTheLines 1st Polling Data and Graphs It took over 4 hours this morning, working with the data, eventually generating and analyzing my graphs, with their support and resistance lines. Having finished, I have to tell you, I'm pleased with my work.
2) I wasn't for much of the time. My projective formulas long for 1,000s and 10s of 1,000s more responses. I dream to have respondents in every zip code in America. They grinded and ground with the chugging weight of too little data, and yet...
3) Step by step I was able to handle the thin fuel and crank up the engine, just enough to keep running till we go to the gas station and back. I'll explain a little more about that below, but let's cut to the chase. Our 1st prediction of the coming election is for Donald Trump.
4) Analytically, please understand, this is NOT a FORMAL call. I will at some point make my own formal call, personally, but from the data. So, to understand today's numbers you have to keep in mind something like this following qualifier...
5) If today's sample were an accurate reflection of those who will actually vote in November, and if our sampling and projection models interpret the data accurately, then... I'm sorry to bore you with stuff like that, but humility has to play a HUGE role in this mission!
6) Given above qualifier, today's data absolutely project a very large, easy victory, and give Trump roughly 40% greater likelihood of winning. Now let's get out of statistical mumbo jumbo and just look at the numbers and what they might mean. 7) The first thing that jumps out at me - and this part is very comfortable for me to say - is that the entire polling industry out there is lying. They have their thumbs on the scale at every stage from funding, design, data collection, and data presentation, to headlines.
8) I look at these numbers and I see a campaign touted to be climbing every mountain, while in reality it may be that it hasn't yet climbed over the first sand dune. If that's true, you can see the degree that polling has further declined, abandoning its mission of accuracy.
9) The next thing I see is an enthusiastic, motivated, dedicated electorate standing behind POTUS. Just looking at that greater than 70% trend offers a totally different reading than any other numbers I've seen out there. What if the media read the news through these numbers?
10) Imagine the headlines... Biden Camp's Inability to Mount Serious Threat Sends Democrats Running for the Hills The Somber Mood in DC has Never Been so Obvious
11) Here's some data I didn't report in the graphs yet, the Independents in our poll are breaking about 8 to 2 for Trump, and we are finding growing numbers of Biden supporters predicting a Trump win.
12) In offering my recommendations, I'll start with Democrats. First, don't believe anyone, not even me. None of know, and there just isn't the data, the honest data, to draw real conclusions from. However, DO NOT TAKE comfort from Biden's positioning. Don't do it.
13) Were I advising his team, I'd say make him keep flashing that million dollar smile of his. Have him always look up and make eye contact. Keep the pace slow, giving him time to avoid gaffs, and catch up to himself and be warm. However...
14) The logic of your campaign keeps eating itself alive. You have to simplify the logic, what is Joe for? He has to be so clear on it that he's got a home base to return to over every question asked. What is his core, what's the core of your message? You have to tighten that up.
15) To Republicans, equally, do not believe what the media is saying about Trump's position. Stop buying it. You don't have to believe me, goodness I don't believe me, yet. But you MUST STOP buying into the doom and gloom image of near certain failure being foisted. Stop that.
16) If I were advising Trump's team, I'd turn that entire story on its heel. I'd say, without being arrogant, or dumb, or acting like we don't have to earn it, still start behaving as if you know you have won already, and are only rightly earning what you know is yours.
17) Trump's entire message has always been winning. Take Corona, you should show America your every defeat OVER it with all the noise and splash you can. No details, here, just find the win, point toward it, and never let go of that. Project victory at every turn.
18) And what about us, we Americans who want to know what's really going on? I'm asking you to bring everyone you know to our website.
19) Please bear with us through the challenges of getting off the ground. When you're there, please focus on the 5 questions, and work to build real conversation most especially with friends and family who disagree with you. Learn to ask and truly listen without argument.
20) America has been divided long enough. We're bigger than this. We can respect each other, have a fair election, and rally behind either leader that we select. Let's support each other, and resist the liars and manipulators. Come join our mission. Let's get to the truth. Thread ends at #20.